2020 election predictions reddit. 1% in the national polls.
2020 election predictions reddit 5 ish in between 2016 and 2020. 10 votes, 10 comments. For the House I had Democrats: 237-198 granted that number was kinda pulled out of my ass and I was too lazy to predict every district. Also, where are you guys drawing your predictions from on the nebraska and maine districts? I could see the maine one going red again, but nebraska? What data is this prediction based on? ^ That's basically how I'd likely respond to such a prediction as of 8/14/2020. Finally, I’ve spoken to Labor politicians and staffers in WA, and they’ve said that they’re banking on the fact that, assuming they go to full term, the WA state election and federal election will be withdrawn a couple of months of each other, so the plan is to essentially run a joint campaign and tie federal Labor as closely as possible Get the Reddit app Scan this QR code to download the app now My final 2020 election prediction (November 2, 2020) Presidential Share Sort by: Best. 5 away in 2020 and is trending blue still. The GOP gerrymandered their way to a House majority but Democrats only lost a handful of seats with a much worse map than 2020 in what was supposed to be a red wave. 2016 Dems were way overconfident because of 2012. It will be very interesting to see how it all turns out. This post is just a crystal ball (some would say on meth) into what I view is the 2024 election. I’m gonna make an educational guess and say that he slightly overestimated Biden due to paying too much attention to polling data back in 2020. So what I'm getting is he isn't doing a nowcast, but a forecast for the election day. Interactive Dashboard. Join us for discussions… However both have approval ratings in the early 40s indicating some support lifting them up. This chart shows 100 simulation predictions for the voting percentages of the Democratic and Republican candidates in the 2020 US presidential election, with each simulation using 10,000 samples. “The Election Mafia” -Red Eagle Politics 2024 will be the first presidential election since the Dobbs decision and Democrats have done reasonably well in most of the elections since Biden took office. 58 subscribers in the Election_Predictions community. The Covid period (2020-early 2022) will be seen as outdated, specially if TikTok gets banned. [a] The Democratic ticket of former vice president Joe Biden and the junior U. My predictions is that Biden wins the presidency but barely. The Left took precautions and voted by mail. 55K subscribers in the Millennials community. Based off of polls, obviously, these are your two. Instead, follow along on our Election Day Live blog as we track results in real-time. In a previous post in this sub, I argued that FiveThirtyEight's 2020 presidential election forecast model "should have been weighting its state-level predictions based partly on the actual results from 2016". [9] Biden will not win all of the swing states. Trump. --- President - Joseph Barnes (DemLab. This is what I’m saying. r/AskReddit is the place to ask and answer thought-provoking questions. (just listen to any of Peter Schiff's podcasts, and you'll know what I mean); unlike what some people will tell you, there is no economic recession that is Comparison of Biden-Trump polling margin (as adjusted by fivethirtyeight) and actual margin for the US 2020 presidential elections Median polling miss: 4. An overview of the results can be found at: https://2024-election-predictions. 20% I can conclude that in 2016 betting markets and prediction markets were largely inline. As we get closer to the election the polls become more predictive than the fundamentals and more weight gets placed on polling. Republicans keep the Senate but barely, and Democrats keep the house. Open comment Trump came within 76,514 votes of winning in 2020 (in Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Nevada). The democrats will have nothing to offer because they've spent most of their time fluffing up people to vote for them, they're going to be pushing for Joe Biden very hard which means that we're probably going to see Bernie get fucked over again and Biden gets the nomination who'll ultimately lose to Trump in the final elections. v1: 2020-US-Election-Simulator. And as Hillary showed a 48% to 46% total is a loss. The workbook gives you complete and unfettered access to everything, so you can see the formulas and VBA code. Predicted the outcome of the 2020 election in favor of the democrats (horary), and predicted some kind of riot in response to this (mars conjunct uranus)- predictions were done in September 2020. 11 votes, 20 comments. Here I'm just juxtaposing those predictions against the historical data for context. 5K votes, 46 comments. I don’t need the woke white thug mob showing up at my front door harassing me because I don’t support who they want me to, asking me to raise a fist for a rapist criminal and saying acab. According to the Tarot Layout above, Joe Biden‘s cards indicate that he will technically win the 2020 Presidential Election; It is interesting that Donald Trump’s Astrology Chart indicates that HE will win The Presidency again. What do you think?. Post your predictions for any upcoming elections, be they the 2014 U. It was three years ago and two months before Senate Intelligence Committee released its interim report on election security that concluded that the Russian government was able to penetrate election systems in at least 18, and possibly up to 21, states, and that in a smaller subset of states, infiltrators "could have altered or deleted voter As of now, the party has shown no interest in offering anything beyond conspiracies & the same old resentments that only appeal to an ever-shrinking base; on the other hand, yes, it's true that the Democrats have work to do with Hispanic voters in terms of targeting them more specifically as opposed to treating them like they're one big When you compare other searches like: Biden 2020 VS Trump 2020, Biden will win VS Trump will win, Joe Biden VS Donald Trump the differences are even larger. r/ElectionPolls: Tracking the 2024 US election polls all in one Reddit location! Biden +9. That's bad and still a crime, but normal, not impactful, and not generally something to be overly concerned about. Well friends, the polls are beginning to close. In 2020 Trump was so polarizing as President that a high percentage of fair weather Democrats were driven to go vote for Biden but I doubt that happens now with his lackluster performance as president. , the exact number of votes needed for Biden to win will be found in a bag in the trunk of a car that was " forgotten ". I'll be coming back on the third of November. This is a question I've been thinking about this week, as I become more confident in my prediction that Trump is going to lose. IMO Biden won’t beat Trump. Then, around 3 a. They did better than conventional wisdom both times. site/ On the Democratic ticket: Joe Biden will likely not run again for President even if he loses. Forecast and Graphics Designed by: Logan Phillips. Reply reply More replies KR1735 Posted by u/Isentrope - 451 votes and 581 comments Still not a terrible prediction, has a few oddball moments but not bad. 4. 16K subscribers in the imaginaryelections community. I have the Presidency as Tilt Democrat. Choose your predictions using the in-cell dropdowns in the 2020 column and the maps and bar charts will update. m. We make memes more than we predict elections to be… In the finance world, there is a famous saying: "The stock market has forecast nine of the last five recessions". 236K subscribers in the mapporncirclejerk community. Let’s wait until 2020 to see what the field looks like. 4 (11/2/2020) General Battleground Polls: President For the record, in 2020 Biden on this was leading Trump by +9. The predictions are the most recent trading price of each contract. 2020 went from Dems being way too pessimistic before COVID because of 2016 to way too confident about a Biden landslide after the pandemic hit. presidential elections from 1984 to 2016, the prediction was accurate for the actual winner. Edit: in fact, fivethirtyeight had this for their election forecast for the popular vote in 2016: Clinton: 48. r/Election_Predictions: Post your predictions for any upcoming elections, be they the 2014 U. 6. Please use this thread to discuss all news related to the presidential election. Technically that is one of the most significant third party runs in a century. , 148-152 million voter turnout). Georgia is trending blue very fast and will be lean blue by then imo unless the popular vote is significantly closer than 2020. g. “The Election Mafia” -Red Eagle Politics According to this chart, and several others it appears to indicate the Donald Trump will win the 2020 Presidential Election. You assume a 2020 rematch which I also think is very likely. When Fall begins, I expect Biden Barely so. 3K subscribers in the YAPms community. My prediction is that Biden of 2024 will eek out a victory to Biden of 2020, who was in a better place than Trump of 2020. Daily Kos Elections - Daily Kos Elections is the direct successor to the Swing State Project website, which merged with Daily Kos in 2010. Walker lost as a pro-Trump Republican. See full list on fivethirtyeight. I need to take a closer look at the Election Day transits for both trump and Biden, though. midterms, the 2016 general elections, or elections… With the 2020 Presidential Election and Georgia Senate runoffs on the books, in the pocket, and out of sight, it's time to announce our 2020 Presidential Election Prediction Contest winners! As mentioned in the contest announcement thread, the Top 10 scoring entries will receive prizes. 8K subscribers in the thecampaigntrail community. 2; max (Trump underestimated): ND +11. Post your presidential and Senate map predictions, or any other predictions you have. The Trump-backed candidates in major races consistently lost. There are a bunch of (IMO, fairly reasonable) caveats listed on the Github page, but overall it's still a great resource. A place to share imaginary elections Nov 3, 2020 · Our 2020 forecasts — presidential, Senate, House — are all now officially frozen, meaning we won’t be ingesting any new polls or updating the odds in any race. What this is referring to is how people are always fear mongering over the next recession, depression, market collapse, etc. Summation & Prediction. It's practically conventional wisdom that Biden had to win PA, WI, MI at least in the 2020 election though now there are some paths for him to win without exactly those 3 if he can trade them for AZ or GA. Comment here with your predictions for the final outcome of the election. Also, Im drunk. Disbelievingly predicted something "explosive" and violent happening in Japan with Jupiter in Aries in July 2022. We make memes more than we predict elections to be… 41 votes, 15 comments. We make memes more than we predict elections to be honest. He’ll be even less popular this time. Predictions: 50/50 US Senate. What happens if 2020 election predictions are as 14K subscribers in the tulsi community. 6K subscribers in the YAPms community. Anyways. Which means Trump had the 30% chance. The possible case against Trump in Georgia will hurt Trump in the general election as well. In eight of the nine U. DDHQ is a good website. “The Election Mafia” -Red Eagle Politics 2019: First signs of 2020's culture as tiktok kickstarts Gen Z's youth culture 2020: A very liminal year that feels like it's not a part of either decade but sits in between, late 2010's culture is still heavy with mumble rap/Rnb being mainstream, but also introduced many Gen Z aesthetics like the 2020 Alt and indie kid Yeah that point makes no sense. Id say later this year just because this trade war stuff is showing no signs of ending, and every trader seems to think that the businessman president will figure out a way to return to status quo antebellum or better. The brain damaged foreigner that knows more about American politics than an American lmao If the projections were right after the 2020 census, then NY would have lost 2 congressional districts, Alabama would have lose a congressional district, Rhode Island would have gotten knocked down to just one congressional district, Arizona would have gained a congressional district, Texas would have gained 3, and Florida would have gained 2. Instead, follow along on our 3 days ago · An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency Election Predictions for the Presidential, Senate, and House elections. Obviously, Trump lost in 2020 and in2022 the Governor election Trump approved candidate (Kari Lake) lost the state. To discuss Congressional, gubernatorial, state-level races and ballot measures, check out our other Megathread. xlsm. It's not like many Bernie primary voters voted for Trump (even though that false talking point is repeated here on reddit a lot). This is a place where people on the left and the right side of the political spectrum can discuss high level, important ideas. He only won by 4. And so if you are far from what the people seem to be, you may somehow be correct I guess, but you should now recognize that it’s YOU who is on the fringe. 6K subscribers in the ElectionPolls community. 7K subscribers in the 2020 community. A shift of just 0. 1-0. Mighigan shifted 3 points left in 2020, and Dobbs is not going to keep it from shifting left again under an incumbent. We're looking to expand for more bipartisan representation. They also tend to gain a few points heading into an election so Biden probably ends up in the mid to upper 40s. Additionally, the state has become more bluer than red. YouTube already have the shorts and Instagram the reels, so there will be more presence of TikTok creators on these other platforms. the liberals were in a 50-50 tie for control if an election occuraed with both covering around 140 seats each six months after the election basically six months of the liberals leading in the polls then a year and a half plus of two scorpions in a bottle with both at [130-150] seats First off, this post is not about supporting one candidate over the other. 3 R win because 75% of the reason why Dems won Arizona in 2020 is because Trump bashed McCain repeatedly, and especially if Biden’s approval rating doesn’t improve significantly it’ll narrowly slip away. Get your predictions in before the first polls close. Run the election 1,000 times and Trump wins, on average, 270 times. The Campaign Trail is a browser game that lets you play as candidates running for President of… He lost in 2020. Trump is a constant at this point and the country by and large believes that he will be on the ticket. I’m 2016 especially they predicted a close election that Trump had a real chance of winning when most thought trump had no chance. They said in the podcast that if the election were happening tomorrow with the current polling averages the forecast would show something like 75-80% Trump. 2 Tools: python, plotly Sources: election results (as of 2020-12-02): The Associated Press via google. Can’t remember LTE’s 2022 predictions but trusting the polls is never really a great idea particularly this far out What are your predictions and analysis for the 2024 presidential election in the key battleground state? The candidate who carried Wisconsin in the 2020, 2016, 2004, and 2000 presidential elections won the state by less than 1 percentage point. In November, he was at -300. Democratic house Democratic president Together, we can finish the job for the American people. midterms, the 201… 5. Posted by u/casparwall - 56 votes and 41 comments The Democratic party will unsuccessfully contest the 2020 election with disunity building and by 2024 it will have fractured irreversibly to be a shadow of its former self, possibly coming in third in the 2028 elections. S. I have it at about D+4. Biden won’t do as good there as he did in 2020 and Trump won’t do as good as 2016 due to him having was less suburban appeal this time. 22 votes, 47 comments. 2020 was super close already. This happens with every election. /r/DaveRubin is the subreddit for the formerly classical liberal talk show "The Rubin Report" and its host Dave Rubin. They will go to bed believing that there are two possible results: Trump wins the remaining states, or Biden stole the remaining states. 2018 Dems were way overconfident about flipping the Senate due to 2017 elections. This community is for discussing the 45th US president and all things associated. Presidential elections were held in the United States on November 3, 2020. The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 65% or higher chance of winning. Despite all the ill-wishers on the Right, Biden is extremely unlikely to step aside or lose a primary. This doesn’t bode well for the GOP. We make memes more than we… Trump approval 2020 - 46% he got 46% of the vote (this was last oct poll) Sitting Presidents essentially get their approval number on election day. A place to share imaginary elections The place to share political maps and join the community. That said, I imagine the 2024 election map will also look similar to 2020 and 2016. It includes predictions for the Presidential, House, and Senate races, and highlights the most important states. The Right went to the voting booths because they arent “afraid” of the virus. What are your guy’s predictions for the 2020 presidential election? Biden is leading in 6 of the swing states that gave Trump the presidency. I will update the predictions involving polls from time to time as we get closer to the election. (This thread is planned to be locked on Election Day, 6pm EST / 3pm PST. There you have it. Except Republicans still won the house in 2022, even though it was an underperformance. Actually polls done by reputable statisticians are extremely reliable. Building up to the election I heard Tim say time… Trump will be leading in all swing states on election night. Cartographers with nothing left to lose. Trump would be too old by then. Here are mine: Presidential 291 D, 247 R Senate 49 D, 51 R Best: my “final” 2020 and 2022 senate and gubernatorial predictions were all perfect (bar AZ gov) Worst: fucking Florida senate 2018 Reply reply The place to share political maps and join the community. The one caveat for them is that their models at times can be way too overconfident. The single failure was the 2000 election, where the model predicted a victory for incumbent party nominee Al Gore. com Nov 3, 2020 · Our 2020 forecasts — presidential, Senate, House — are all now officially frozen, meaning we won’t be ingesting any new polls or updating the odds in any race. Updated Daily. If you can't remember… In July of 2020, Biden was sitting at around -150 on offschecker. Additionally, the 2024 elections will have far higher turnout than the smaller elections. What are some potential causes of the dislocation 14 days before the 2020 election? Someone has some insider information about the election and is betting on Trump, keeping Trump’s price high. The most likely election, an election most people don't want: Biden vs. Please read the instructions for the most recent election if you wish to run. I think it will be a 0. Press question mark to learn the rest of the keyboard shortcuts Whatever your predictions were, how confident were you about them, and how confident are you about your prediction for the upcoming election? Whether you think Trump will win or lose in November, what's the main reason? Feel free to answer this question as it pertains to your 2016 and 2020 predictions as well. 5% Trump: 44. And he would be a two-time loser. If more Democratic-leaning voters had turned out to vote, that likely could have been avoided. GOP fundraising is going poorly. The New York Times has published a map and the underlying data of precinct-level vote tallies in the 2020 US Presidential election. Considering incumbency advantage and an approval rating that hasn't bottomed out. 18K subscribers in the millenials community. Donald Trump declares victory on election night. This means that if you reran the 2020 election, Trump could have won. FiveThirtyEight prediction model odds of winning: 71. I think Colorado will be safe by 2024 because it was only 1. Trump by numbers similar to 2016 IMO. North Carolina = 🔴, similar to Georgia. In Georgia’s Senate election, if Trump wins the state, I think that David Perdue (Republican) wins re-election over Jon Ossoff (Democrat). The Election Predictions Dashboard summarizes all of our predictions at RacetotheWH in one place. 5% (which was worse than the ~7% margin that polls predicted). he was still on the ballot in 2020 and the rust belt went blue, and the right candidate for the dems in 24 could still take back iowa and ohio 1. They aren’t perfect but you aren’t being fair here. 280K subscribers in the Indiana community. I believe Biden wins this pretty easily. 9% If you used 538s prediction to gamble on the election you would have made money in 2016 and 2020. Pennsylvania and Michigan seem like a lock for whoever is against Trump in a general election. While you are correct that election odds are fairly good when it gets close to the election, the current election odds are not an indication of what election odds will be this November. Tracking the 2024 US election polls all in one Reddit location! 16K subscribers in the imaginaryelections community. Posted by u/[Deleted Account] - 1 vote and 8 comments Based on his predictions, it’s possible for both Arizona and Pennsylvania to go either way. I think Florida will be lean given Trump’s massive margin there, but closer, maybe something like his 2016 margin. ) Next Election - 1992 Current Year - 1991 members There are always some extremely low level things going on in elections - one case of voter fraud here, maybe another two over there, etc. senator from California Kamala Harris defeated the incumbent Republican president Donald Trump, and vice president Mike Pence. It's going to be a very close election. I have studied many charts regarding this important question, and each time Trump’s Astrological Chart is favored, but it conflicts with Tarot Readings regarding the same question. Election night: Donald Trump is leading in the votes. 1K subscribers in the YAPms community. Updated every two hours, this is an electoral map projection derived from the FiveThirtyEight 2020 Election Forecast. It's a very serious addiction. 9; min (Biden underestimated): MD -2. Granted, he did win, but much like the Economist's 2020 model, the confidence levels are way too high. tiiny. r/Tulsi is an online hub to discuss former Congressional House Member Tulsi Gabbard. The 2020 Elections will put the 2016 Elections to shame. Despite the liberal lean of the site as a whole, the Daily Kos Elections predictions tend to be fairly even-handed, if not even slightly bearish for Democrats. Besides the main prediction, you are also able to view individual results based solely on polls, previous elections, and demographic data. Members Online TheWater15 45M subscribers in the AskReddit community. I think the RINO could win a state or two in the northeast at most, but will mainly take votes from the MAGA candidate in competitive rust belt states to deny them the election. I fail to see how Trump can flip any of these states. The place to share political maps and join the community. Rural Trump supporters aren’t silent, correct. It's possible that I'm wrong, but right now I'd give Biden 65/35 odds of winning re-election because the polls are starting to turn around for him, Trump and the GOP are getting clobbered with independents, and the likely events of the next year (an improving economy 6. Biden is ahead of Trump in polling at this moment, but the gap between Biden and Trump is shrinking. We make memes more than we predict elections to be… Both guys are not great at predicting elections, are biased, and just trust polls look at their 2020 predictions they were pretty inaccurate. 5K subscribers in the YAPms community. The 2021 session will draw new districts, this is why this election is so specifically important for Texas, it decides if we go blue now, or in a decade. 05% of the total votes in a few states would have re-elected Trump, even though Biden won the overall vote by 4. Trump has took 3 senate races away from republicans after 2020. prediction of USA 2024 election with R The Democratic Party may get more ticks than GOP in 2024 presidential election. View community ranking In the Top 10% of largest communities on Reddit. Time to put ourselves out there and make our own predictions. ) We took the time to flame r/conservative for their overly optimistic predictions. I know that the 2020 election is still 19 months away, but I tried to make a prediction. A subreddit for Millennials (born from roughly 1981 to 1996 or 1980 to 2000 in the loosest definition)… Yeah I mean those states have been the main focus since Hillary took them for granted in 2016. Ultimately, however this election goes, America is in crisis. Me in the suburbs, I kinda have to be silent about it irl. So how he gets to excuse his original prediction, when I can’t find any justification for it, is beyond me. How do you guys think the debates are gonna go? Obviously I’m asking this because I don’t want Trump to win, but that doesn’t matter in this discussion. 1% in the national polls. 5% and a total of 60,000 votes decided the electoral college across multiple swing states. You have to look closer to see that several light blue counties in 2016 became dark blue in 2020, and several light red counties in 2016 became light blue in 2020. From what I remember, the 2020 election transits were pretty intense for trump, but looking back it was the culmination of the January 6 insurrection. The Senate one here is not bad, but on election day for instance, they gave Ron Johnson a 91% chance of winning re-election. Millenials - the generation growing up near 2000 and grown up no later than 2020. 1st Place: Ternion All-Powerful Award r/ElectionPredictions: A place to make predictions on state, federal and local election races. The issue is between Biden of 2020 and Biden of 2024, and whoever wins that is who really wins 2024. Reddit for the Hoosier State - The crossroads of America. So while Biden's numbers are better right now I think the added time distance from election day could make his % to win similar to Clintons 71% number. There is zero evidence of significant voter fraud occurring in the 2020 election. “The Election Mafia” -Red Eagle Politics Itll be in time to influence the 2020 election. Nevada also shifts because of Dobbs, Nevada being close in 2020 was due to lock downs and in 2022 the gop candidate was more moderate on abortion. Inflation and interest rates are still ridiculous (I know this is not Bidens direct fault, but the presidency has always been blamed for economic problems), abortion topics seem to have settled down a bit as Trump himself has taken a more moderate stance, and most importantly Biden is clearly suffering from either Alzheimers or Dimentia. Each contract which is tied to a single outcome in the 2020 election (e. If Bernie got slightly more votes among democrats in the primaries, that in no way means he would have won the general election. agreed, i'm not sure why the consensus is that the rust belt is trending red when it only went red in an election where trump, who portrayed an economic populist, was on the ballot. 3. He was able to avoid the stink of being a loser after 2020 based on the lies about the allegedly stolen election, on the closeness of that election, and on the truly unique circumstances (covid, mass mail voting, highest turnout in over a century). One of the Most Accurate Election Forecasters in 2020 and 2022. 8K subscribers in the YAPms community. “The Election Mafia” -Red Eagle Politics Members Online Trump now leads Biden by over 2 points in the RCP average, and is above 47% share (higher than 2020) But if you aspire to be informed and objective, this election tells you SOMETHING about how most Americans have felt about the last 4 years, about Trump, Trumpism, their response to COVID. I see Joe Biden winning the 2020 presidential election But a month after the election joe Biden will get the coronavirus He will Kamala Harris in… In close elections whoever is better able to get their side to actually cast ballots win the swing states. Al Gore won the popular vote, but narrowly lost the electoral college. It is pretty simple to use. She was a candidate for… It's incredible how the maps look identical when comparing the 2016 and 2020 maps. Use the timeline feature to view the map as it looked at the end of each day. “The Election Mafia” -Red Eagle Politics 4. Press J to jump to the feed. ) Vice President - Bill Stevens (DemLab. FiveThirtyEight 2020 Election Forecast. So, Joe Biden just announced he is running for president in 2020. The 2nd District has Windham county, the other county in the state to vote Red in 2020, it had been voting blue in every presidential election since 1988 until Trump flipped it in 2016 and retained it in 2020. I was going to do another post about the less competitive ones. midterms, the 2016 general elections, or elections anywhere around the world. 2022: Riots in Latin American and African countries, Portugal beats Italy in the World Cup final, tragic event happens in China 2023: First Gen Alpha teenagers (Not a prediction, this will happen), decline of traditional TV, WHO declares the pandemic is over as over 90% of the worldwide population are immunized against the Coronavirus, Facebook ends Daily Kos Elections - Daily Kos Elections is the direct successor to the Swing State Project website, which merged with Daily Kos in 2010. Either way I was very wrong there. 5. If TikTok gets banned, I imagine two scenarios: A big migration of content to other platforms. We make memes more than we predict elections to be… 2024: This year is important for the fact that there are major elections taking place, especially in Britain and the US, these elections will shape these respective nations beyond the 2020s and into the 30s and 40s, Backlash against the 2010s will ramp up as the year goes on as we see a shift to the right, even centre left parties will shift to The place to share political maps and join the community. We make memes more than we predict elections to be… Georgia = 🔴, them voting Democrat in 2020 was a bit of a fluke, and Biden isn't as dominant with black voters as 2020. Are you with us? Join our campaign to re-elect Joe Biden today! Posted by u/TheGodSlayer65475 - 47 votes and 45 comments Election Predictions Dashboard - 2024 Predictions. Let me start off by saying I'm a massive Pooler, and love watching his 30 minute commentary videos. The media, however, had the "Clinton is guaranteed to win" mindset which was a vast misrepresentation of polling data. TL;DR, I think Biden will win with a reduced majority. Divided predictions for a divided country. com A professor who has predicted every presidential election correctly since 1984 has officially made his 2020 prediction, do you agree with his analysis and prediction model? US Elections The Keys to the White House , developed by Allan Lichtman, is a system for predicting the popular-vote result of American presidential elections, based upon the 226K subscribers in the mapporncirclejerk community. Anybody is free to join regardless of nationality; you can only run if you are allowed to be on reddit. Gavin Newsom or Gretchen Whitmer are pretty likely governor candidates and will likely both attempt runs, it's likely Kamala Harris attempts a run as well even though I don't think she beats Newsom or Whitmer in the primary. 103K subscribers in the trump community. 538 were very clear: 70/30 chance for a Clinton win. Meanwhile, in the special election, no candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote in the primary election, which has multiple candidates from the same party, I predict, meaning a runoff election occurs. true. They're actually very good predictors of presidential elections. I have even more criticisms, but regardless, the best I can tell is that he’s actually predicted 3 elections, 2012, 2016, and 2020. But they will still be a very distant third, and have no shot of winning the election. ght qke ravmi kuumi qhzi dmawq mixwsagz dduxjl pzzlab zvsu